Tag Archives: political analysis

A Poisoned Gift? Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland

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This is a translation (by Claude.ai, revised by the author) of an article I published in The Conversation France on 30 December.

Israel surprised the world by recognising Somaliland on Friday, 26 December. What are the reasons behind this unexpected announcement, and what outcomes is it likely to produce?

A Diplomatic Anomaly

The republic of Somaliland, formed in 1991, is independent in all but name, yet Israel is the first sovereign state to recognise it. For all other countries and international organisations, Somaliland remains under the authority of the Somali state, from which the republic seceded after a war with genocidal characteristics in the late 1980s.

Today, Somalia’s federal government, established with international support in 2012 after decades of civil war, is beset by attacks from Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, suffers from corruption on a record scale and experiences persistently high levels of political instability. Federal Somalia still lacks a constitution, universal elections and several of its constitutive regions refuse to submit to the federal authorities. By contrast, Somaliland is a democratic and stable haven, with its own constitution, a reasonably functioning electoral political system, its own currency, and an army.

Google Earth view of Berbera port
The UAE in 2017 entered into a multi-billion$ deal with Somaliland and Ethiopia to develop the port of Berbera (above right) and transport infrastructure – the Berbera corridor – to rid landlocked Ethiopia from its dependence on Djibouti for shipping. A military base in and around the airport (below left) was also part of the deal but never constructed. Courtesy of Google Earth

President Abdirahman Irro was undoubtedly in need of good news. After his victory on 13 November 2024, his government became bogged down in the clan conflicts it had inherited and made little progress on critical fronts such as youth employment, economic growth, and inflation. Following Israel’s announcement, jubilant crowds took to the streets of Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital.

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Al Shabaab Governance – peer-reviewed paper published

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How does the insurgent Somali Islamist movement Al Shabaab govern the populations it controls, and what are the implications for Somalia and the international intervention there? This is the subject of my article published by the Canadian Journal of African Studies on 18 July 2025.

Here is the link to the final manuscript as accepted by the Journal, and following is the abstract of the paper.

Presentations and echoes

I will discuss this paper as part of the presentation on my current research at Leiden University on 24 September, in a closed session to which LU staff and students are invited.

I’m organising a seminar on this topic at the Center for International Studies of Sciences Po (CERI) in Paris in the second half of October (precise date and location to follow). The seminar will be presented and moderated by my colleague at the CERI Hélène Thiollet.

An article based on my research will soon be published by the New Humanitarian, and a shorter, more divulgative article will appear in The Conversation (African edition). The links will be placed here upon publication.

I had the pleasure to discuss this paper with Guido Lafranchi, researcher at the Clingendael Institute, and look forward to other discussions with experts!

Note: the banner image is from a 2018 map depicting areas of influence. Al Shabaab = green. Not much has changed since then.

Exploring a new approach to development

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Governments of rich countries are increasingly reducing development budgets. The massive cuts by the current US administration to USAID, amounting to a sudden reduction in global aid budgets by over 20%, are echoed by cuts in other traditionally generous donor countries such as Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and Australia. Although both development and humanitarian aid budgets are hit, the following text focuses on development assistance.

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Is It Time to Recognize the Taliban Government?

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Robert Kluijver. Published in The Conversation (France): December 1, 2024 and in The Conversation (English) on December 29, 2024.

Other language versions of this article were published in the World & New World Journal in Arabic, Russian, Spanish and German.

Is it justifiable to continue not recognizing the Taliban government, which has been in power for more than three years? This stance does nothing to improve the situation of Afghan women and prevents the international community from fully engaging with other critical issues playing in the country.

Selfie by the author with two senior Taliban officials (Director of International Trade and Head of Fairs and International Exhibitions)
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Self-Governance plan of Sudan’s resistance committees

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Sudan’s resistance committees are still active – by necessity, because they are the only networks supporting the people of Sudan, taking care of public services while the state has failed nearly completely. We should support these democratic popular forces in whatever way possible.

In January 2022 the resistance committees of Khartoum state (the urban agglomeration of Khartoum, which holds between a third and half of Sudan’s population) published a Charter for the Establishment of People’s Authority. This charter is an open source document, and it leaves most specifics of the transitional governance structures open to be decided in a democratic way. But some of its principles reveal what self-governance coordinated by resistance committees may look like:

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Interview in NRC over staatsopbouw in de Hoorn van Afrika

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Interview

‘De liberale democratie die het Westen altijd als panacee voorschrijft, werkt simpelweg vaak niet’

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2023/05/29/er-zijn-meerdere-vormen-van-bestuur-als-alternatief-van-een-centrale-overheid-a4165826

Robert Kluijver | Expert internationale betrekkingen

In de Hoorn van Afrika verkruimelen staatsstructuren. Het Westen moet steun geven aan plaatselijke zelfhulpinitiatieven van burgers, zegt Robert Kluijver.

De Hoorn van Afrika staat in brand en staatsapparaten verkruimelen. In Somalië ging de centrale staat al ten onder in 1991, in Ethiopië nemen sinds 2020 regio’s het op tegen de centrale autoriteit. En in Soedan raakten de machthebbers vorige maand onderling slaags. Maar de bevolking zit niet bij de pakken neer en werkt aan alternatieve vormen van bestuur. De vraag is hoe om te gaan met dit proces van eroderende staatsstructuren. Misschien is het misplaatst om een sterke centrale regering te willen vestigen en moet juist steun worden gegeven aan plaatselijke zelfhulpinitiatieven van burgers, zoals de verzetsgroepen in Soedan en de lokale vredesinitiatieven in Somalië. Dat betoogt Robert Kluijver, die westerse pogingen bestudeert om liberale democratieën te vestigen in landen die cultureel vaak enorm verschillen.

Wat is er over van de staat in Soedan?

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Sudan – The Solution is Real Democracy

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Note: this article has appeared in African Arguments (Sudan: Revolutionary Reflections amid a Raging War) on May 5, 2023. A French version, more didactic and less politically engaged but otherwise substantially the same, appeared in the French edition of The Conversation (Soudan: la Transition Démocratique en Péril) on May 3, 2023.

The current fighting between military factions in Sudan must be seen against the backdrop of the Sudanese revolution that started in December 2018.

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The Sudanese Revolution

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Perspectives from Khartoum, March-April 2022

I have come to Khartoum for a cultural mapping. The European Union has decided to expand its support of the Sudanese cultural sector. The EU, wired to support the state of Sudan, has no partner to work with since the military coup of Oct 25, five months ago: it does not recognize the military government. After several months of efforts to help reconstitute a civilian government, the EU delegation in Sudan has decided to increase its assistance program towards the support of civil society. One of the components of civil society is the cultural sector, supported over the past years through EUNIC. I am glad that sometimes the European Union does use its money wisely. My goal is to help them invest strategically into the cultural sector, in a way that builds it up instead of making it dependent on external funding.

As a result I’m in an intense round of consultations with all kinds of actors in this sector. Artists, directors of private organizations, commercial or non-benefit, institutions, researchers… everybody is speaking about the political and economic crisis, and are thinking about what the cultural sector can do to contribute to an outcome. In the following I will present some of their views on the double failure of the state and the economy, and how they are reacting to this crisis now. But first an explanation about the current situation in Sudan.

El Mek Nimr avenue, Khartoum. Photo by author
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Le Somaliland, la démocratie africaine aux 30 ans d’isolement

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For the full article (in French) see The Conversation here. I also gave a 20-minute interview in French on the Belgian Radio programme ‘Au Bout du Jour’ by Eddy Caekelberghs on 28 Feb 2022 (link here)

Il y a trente ans, tandis que la Somalie sombrait dans la guerre civile, la partie nord-ouest du pays a fait sécession. Elle s’est déclarée indépendante sous le nom de Somaliland. Depuis, ce pays a construit un État, un ordre démocratique, sa propre monnaie et une économie. Il a surtout connu la paix, à la différence de la Somalie voisine.

Le Somaliland, grand comme la moitié de la France, est peuplé de trois à quatre millions de personnes. Il commande une position stratégique sur les rives sud du Golfe d’Aden, une des zones majeures du transit maritime mondial.

Depuis trente ans, ce pays cherche la reconnaissance diplomatique, en tant que bon voisin et en respectant les règles internationales. Pourtant, il n’est pas reconnu. Pourquoi ?

Le marché du bétail à Aynabo. Robert Kluijver, Fourni par l’auteur
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Policy paper: Engaging the Taliban

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Robert Kluijver, 25 August /1 September 2021

As the dust settles after the Taliban takeover of the Afghan government, diplomats, donors and aid agencies are already wondering: how will we deal with the new government? I argue here that the West should engage the Taliban for the sake of the Afghan population.

Street view in Kabul’s old city, near Asheqan wa Arefan; 2013 (photo by author)

The EU has stopped its development aid, as have USAID and other major Western donors. This aid provided more than half of the Afghan government’s budget and no Western donor wants to appear to be propping up the Taliban regime. Instead, more humanitarian aid has been promised by the EU (increasing it from 50 to 200 million Euros) which it plans to disburse through the UN, to help fleeing Afghans as well as those staying in the country. Humanitarian assistance is typically disbursed through non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and is therefore seen as not supporting the government. This is highly problematic as I shall argue.

Likely security cooperation between the West and the Taliban

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