This is a translation (by Claude.ai, revised by the author) of an article I published in The Conversation France on 30 December.

Israel surprised the world by recognising Somaliland on Friday, 26 December. What are the reasons behind this unexpected announcement, and what outcomes is it likely to produce?

A Diplomatic Anomaly

The republic of Somaliland, formed in 1991, is independent in all but name, yet Israel is the first sovereign state to recognise it. For all other countries and international organisations, Somaliland remains under the authority of the Somali state, from which the republic seceded after a war with genocidal characteristics in the late 1980s.

Today, Somalia’s federal government, established with international support in 2012 after decades of civil war, is beset by attacks from Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, suffers from corruption on a record scale and experiences persistently high levels of political instability. Federal Somalia still lacks a constitution, universal elections and several of its constitutive regions refuse to submit to the federal authorities. By contrast, Somaliland is a democratic and stable haven, with its own constitution, a reasonably functioning electoral political system, its own currency, and an army.

President Abdirahman Irro was undoubtedly in need of good news. After his victory on 13 November 2024, his government became bogged down in the clan conflicts it had inherited and made little progress on critical fronts such as youth employment, economic growth, and inflation. Following Israel’s announcement, jubilant crowds took to the streets of Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital.

Beyond pride, what would international recognition bring to the people of Somaliland? Acceptance of their passports and integration into international banking systems—facilitating trade—as well as the freedom for the government to borrow from international financial institutions in order to finance development.

Unfortunately, President Trump did not follow up on the Israeli initiative. “Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?” he asked. Nevertheless, it is known that the United States has recently visited Somaliland’s coastline to explore the possibility of establishing a military base there.

A Geopolitical Fault Line

The strong reaction from the African Union, Egypt, Turkey, and many other members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation—all reaffirming Somalia’s territorial inviolability—draws a geopolitical fault line that now threatens to deepen. On the other side of this divide, countries that see an independent Somaliland as serving their interests remain silent: the United Arab Emirates, landlocked Ethiopia, and Kenya. Israel’s alignment with this camp, and potentially that of the United States, gives it considerably greater weight.

Officially, Israel has offered no specific explanation for its decision to recognise Somaliland. Most analysts, however, agree that the primary objective is the security of maritime routes through the Red Sea leading to Israel’s port of Eilat and to the Suez Canal. Somaliland’s coastline, facing Yemen and close to the Bab el-Mandeb strait, would offer the Hebrew state a platform from which to encircle Houthi-controlled Yemen and counter Turkey’s regional influence.

A second, less frequently mentioned interest is Israel’s desire to identify a country willing to receive Palestinians that it seeks to expel. Earlier this year, Israeli and American efforts to negotiate such arrangements—including with Somaliland—were discussed. While this may seem implausible, the Somaliland state could see an advantage in such a deal if it were to involve international recognition and significant financial transfers.

Finally, Israel’s objective may be to disrupt a regional order that is broadly hostile to it. Drawing on its alliances with the Emirates, Ethiopia, and the United States, this recognition unsettles its rivals: Iran and Houthi-controlled Yemen; Turkey and Qatar (the main backers of Somalia’s federal government); and Egypt, allied with the SAF in Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti in an effort to isolate their Ethiopian rival.

A Poisoned Gift?

This surprise recognition appears to be a risky gamble, but one that could reshuffle the cards in Israel’s favour. A key factor lies in the domestic legitimacy and stability of Somaliland’s government, which makes it a more reliable partner than the transnational government of federal Somalia.

In the short term, the announcement seems to benefit President Irro and the legitimate desire for recognition held by the people of Somaliland. Yet aligning so openly with Israel could prove a poisoned gift to Somaliland’s sovereign aspirations in the medium term. Al-Shabaab’s nationalist militants have largely left Somaliland alone since 2008, but, like many Somali citizens, they view this move as a profound betrayal—both of the Palestinian cause and of the unity of the Somali people.

If Netanyahu’s and Trump’s efforts to create a new international order in which they dominate through military and financial force succeed, Somaliland may find itself lifted up in their slipstream. But if they fail, or jettison their new ally on the Gulf of Aden for unforeseeable reasons, Somaliland may find itself alone facing new or more determined enemies.