Wilders, the radical anti-Muslim nationalist and populist leader of the Dutch “Freedom Party” has manoeuvred very smartly. He has promised to support the coming right wing Dutch government on the condition that his political programme be followed by it; but he will not become part of that government.
His 21 seats in the 150 seat parliament are essential to the stability of the minority coalition of the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, who together have 55 seats; with his support they therefore have a precarious majority of 76 of the 150 seats.
The points of his political programme, which form the basis for his support, are very tough anti-immigration measures; intolerance of anybody in the Netherlands who does not conform to his strict view of Dutch culture (this is aimed at the Muslims, although the wording of the agreement that forms the basis of the government does not mention them to avoid charges of discrimination); harsh security (anti-terrorism, video surveillance, increase in the number of police, tougher sanctions, the creation of a Ministry of Security) and protection of the elderly.
As an example, anybody who does not speak fluent Dutch or whose dress or behaviour diminishes his/her chances of getting a job will not get unemployment benefits.
The government has promised great reforms that will privilege big business and increase taxes and the cost of living for the middle class. Development aid, culture and education will see serious cuts. Many of their election promises however will be difficult to put into practice, as they require either an adaptation of the Dutch Constitution or of the European Union’s rules, or because they will encounter serious opposition of the trade unions or other traditionally strong social groups. Moreover their promise to cut the deficit by 18 billion euro’s will certainly not be held.
It will be easy for Wilders to support the right-wing government until he feels popular indignation with their failure to accomplish what they promised. For example they will not be able to be as harsh with immigrants as Wilders wants them to because of European Union regulations. Whenever he feels the moment is right he will withdraw his support from the government, claiming they are as bedlam as previous center-left coalitions. This will strengthen his anti-establishment standing from which he has gained popularity.
The government will then collapse, and new elections will be held. And I am sure Wilders will gain many more votes in those elections, maybe even enough to become the biggest party in the country and form the next government.
In fact Wilders is profiting from the unacknowledged crisis of democracy. What sets him apart from Mussolini or Hitler is that he has no appealing vision for the future of the country, only a negative one (all things which he is against, from Islam to the European Union, from development aid to elite culture, and of course ‘the political establishment’). That limits his rallying potential, because at one point people will want to know what he is for (besides an impossible return to Holland’s ‘glorious’ past).
On the other hand he may still have enough time to work on a program for the country which appeals to his electorate.